Realising the demanding ambitions towards decarbonisation and digitalisation of economy and society is challenging. Sustainable transformations require the development and implementation of collective strategies. Multiple transformation pathways are possible, and their implications need to be well understood to make the right choices. The Transformation Pathways and Strategies (TPS) project aims to develop new modeling techniques for capturing and shaping system transformations and to apply them in strategic foresight in combination with foresight methods.
The TPS project aims to develop new modeling techniques for capturing and shaping system transformations and to apply them in strategic foresight in combination with foresight methods. The main research challenges reside in
- integrating forward-looking elements in the development of transformation pathways,
- capturing the diversity and the mix of actor strategies and how they influence pathways, and
- providing quantitative representations of the complex and dynamic interactions between the various factors and interventions along the pathways.
The research and innovation initiative “Transformation Pathways and Strategies: Models, Foresight, Participation” builds vital knowledge for the exploration and shaping of transformation pathways and the development and assessment of intervention strategies.
Exploration and Acceleration
We address different sets of requirements for and balances between the three elements of foresight, modelling and participation. In the following modules, we explore various aspects of transformation:
- Regional Twin Transition Pathways
- Multi-System Transformation
- Foresight Briefs & Talks
- Transformative Impact of RTOs
- Integration & Networks
Regional twin transition pathways
This module focuses on the development of an empirical agent-based simulation model for green and digital (‘twin’) technological transformation pathways at the regional level. In an initial version of the model, the impacts of different policy strategies on the development of regional profiles in green and digital technologies were simulated for more than 300 regions in Europe, allowing for the exploration of future transformation pathways.
- An empirical agent-based model for Regional Twin Transition Pathways: Basic architecture and potential policy applications, Jäger, K., Bürscher, T., Scherngell, T., Neuländtner, M., Paier, M., & Konrad, J. (2024, September 27)
Multi-system transformation
In Multi-system transformation we focus on energy transitions at the intersection of multiple, interdependent socio-technical systems together with industrial partners.
- Navigating Multi-System Interactions: A Nexus Framework for Sustainability Transitions Pathways. 15th International Sustainability Transitions Conference (IST 2024), Oslo, Norway, Kubeczko, K., & Soloviy, V. (2025, April 9).
Foresight Briefs and Talks
We also engage in a series of forward-looking strategic dialogues with diverse public and private sector actors on transformation challenges impacting society, economy and policy in Austria.
The Foresight Briefs are concise, well-founded analyses or reports on future-related topics. Each brief was accompanied by a workshop where the content was discussed collaboratively. The series will continue in 2025.
- Big Tech in Austria, Bernhard Dachs, Foresight Brief 01_2025
- Human Centricity in the Austian Production, Wolfram Rhomberg, Denise Branz, Nico Pintar, Foresight Brief 02_2025
Transformative impact of RTOs
We use insights on transformation mechanisms and dynamics for rethinking and assessing the roles of Research and Technology Organisations (RTOs) as knowledge hubs and accelerators of change in processes of system transformation, and for building transformative capacities in these organisations.
Integration and Valorization
A methodological toolbox combines elements of foresight, modelling and participation to support the formulation of and engagement with transformation pathways. A network with European research and policy partners advances methods of exploring, assessing, monitoring, and evaluating transformation pathways:
