DeRisk-E

Derisking the Austrian Electricity Sector Transformation towards Decarbonisation

Climate change, combined with unpredictable geopolitical events, has shown that the simultaneous occurrence of various events can, amongst other things, pose massive challenges for the electricity system and security of supply. This is more important than ever, as energy systems in both Austria and the European Union are undergoing a transition towards decarbonisation, which relies primarily on the integration of electricity with other sectors and in which energy supply is largely based on weather-dependent, intermittent renewable energy sources.

Project goals

The DeRisk-E project is investigating how Austria’s future decarbonised electricity system can be designed to be resilient to climatic, geopolitical and other uncertainties. The aim is to develop well-founded recommendations to support Austrian decision-makers in designing a robust and resilient electricity system.
The impacts of climate change, in combination with various other uncertainties, are being investigated and assessed using mathematical methods and climate and electricity system models for the years 2040 and 2050 and beyond.

The DeRisk-E methodology is as follows:

• First, the impacts of climate change are systematically identified. This is based on the latest climate scenarios in combination with the ‘Global Warming Levels’ classification framework.
• Next, an analysis is carried out of the weather-dependent changes in electricity supply and demand under various climate scenarios within the Austrian and European context.
• At the same time, areas of uncertainty regarding other key parameters are identified, such as the rise in electricity demand driven by sector coupling and other developments, the expansion of renewable energy, and the achievement of the associated targets in Austria and the European Union.
• Furthermore, the implementation of grid expansion plans, potential bottlenecks in fuel supply and fuel price shocks, as well as financial parameters, are taken into account. The latter include regulatory frameworks and developments on the capital markets that may affect investment and the operation of the electricity system.
• Based on this, a comprehensive, forward-looking analysis of the electricity system is conducted to assess the impacts of other climate change risks.
• Follow a detailed stakeholder dialogue and deriving recommendations for Austrian decision-makers on how best to reduce the risk to our future decarbonized electricity system and make the energy system more robust.

Role of AIT

• Project coordination and scientific leadership
• Translation and processing of climate data for use in energy system models
• Analysis of the impacts of different climate scenarios on electricity demand and generation
• Identification and assessment of climate-related extreme events from an energy system perspective
• Investigation of future development pathways under various uncertainties using energy system models
• Assessment of the robustness and resilience of future electricity systems
• Formulation of recommendations for action
• Involvement of relevant stakeholders from the climate, energy and infrastructure sectors